BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 8, 2016 8:41:44 GMT -8
There isn't a "named" storm heading your way (winds aren't high), but high sea temperatures (>90°F) are saturating clouds, and the slow front moving in toward the Florida panhandle is predicted to dump up to 20" of rain there in the course of the next few days. 20" in one storm is a LOT.
Since it isn't a named storm it may not receive as much "storm-tracker" press coverage. But those in the area, or if you know folks in the area, please keep your head up for potential flooding.
Just a heads-up.
- Mike
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Post by johntpenca on Aug 8, 2016 13:54:55 GMT -8
OT
Mike- just curious; when I was on an older version of this forum several years ago, I got the impression you were a glaciologist. Have you branched out?
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johnnyray
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Post by johnnyray on Aug 8, 2016 14:18:12 GMT -8
Makes me wonder if there's something behind the seeming increase in random, isolated, rare, severe weather events or is it the internet's fault for allowing access to information.
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Roger
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Post by Roger on Aug 8, 2016 15:46:09 GMT -8
In Tampa we have received about 3" of rain in the last two days. Areas north of us have received a lot more and more of the same is expected on Tuesday. Most of the flooding is in low areas and around flooded rivers. Since we are so flat the water in most areas goes down quickly. With water temperatures in the gulf around 90 it is not a surprise that there is a lot of water in the air and we get storm events such as this.
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zeke
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Post by zeke on Aug 8, 2016 17:33:51 GMT -8
At my house, we have received over 4" of rain, according to my gauge. The edges of this storm appear to be from here to cajun.
Thanks for thinking of us.
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 8, 2016 18:02:18 GMT -8
OT Mike- just curious; when I was on an older version of this forum several years ago, I got the impression you were a glaciologist. Have you branched out? Yes, I'm a glaciologist, and no, I haven't branched out. I don't claim any personal expertise on this, it's just various things I saw on Twitter from folks who know a lot more about it than I do. This thread was just a post from a forum community member. I didn't mean to imply otherwise. |
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Hungry Jack
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Post by Hungry Jack on Aug 8, 2016 18:29:57 GMT -8
We could use a bit of rain up here in northern Illinois.
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 8, 2016 18:34:00 GMT -8
I think we should be just west of the worst of it here in the Baton Rouge area. We are expecting rain for the foreseeable future -- and we've had quite a lot of violent storms lately. Last night, in fact, my house was literally shaking during some particularly powerful thunder. I can't recall having this many days of really violent storms during a summer in a long time!
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Post by johntpenca on Aug 8, 2016 18:57:18 GMT -8
I didn't mean to imply otherwise. No worries. It just seems you are a really intelligent person, so was wondering if you had taken up a new field. |
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Post by Bateauxdriver on Aug 9, 2016 7:09:53 GMT -8
I have a New Orleans bike ride planned for tomorrow night hope it doesn't rain out.
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walkswithblackflies
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Post by walkswithblackflies on Aug 9, 2016 7:51:56 GMT -8
Makes me wonder if there's something behind the seeming increase in random, isolated, rare, severe weather events or is it the internet's fault for allowing access to information. I've wondered the same. Making projections of the frequency of 100-year storms based on 200 years of reliable data is dubious IMO, but the trends seem to be there. Years ago, on the old forum, gabby posted a link to a statistical analysis of rainfall events and it showed an increase in "greater than one standard deviation" storms or the like. It was quite fascinating. In my neck of the woods, the Great Lakes and local lakes are staying ice-free longer, and although our annual snowfall has remained stable, the number of days without snow on the ground has dramatically increased since I was a kid in the 1970s (perceived by me, and later verified by a local meteorologist). And then today, there is this article showing an increase in "mosquito days": [Climate Central] ranked cities by the number of days each year with ideal conditions for mosquitoes and how that number has changed in the past decade compared to the 1980s. "We found that most major cities in the country (76 percent) have seen an overall increase in days conducive for mosquitoes in the past 36 years," according to the report.
City, 1980s, 2006-2015, Increase
Albany, 70, 99, 29
Syracuse, 73, 98, 25
Utica, 67, 83, 16
New York City, 141, 153, 12
Buffalo, 95, 105, 10
Rochester, 96, 105, 9
Binghamton, 67, 67, 0
www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/08/two_upstate_ny_cities_among_biggest_increases_in_mosquito_season_in_us.html#incart_river_index |
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 12, 2016 5:31:40 GMT -8
We are in the heart of the flooding here. Office and schools closed, towns cut off due to flooding, people can't be rescued from some flooded areas because the currents are too fast, etc. It's a mess!! Hoping this passes more quickly than expected.
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Post by autumnmist on Aug 12, 2016 5:56:24 GMT -8
Aren't these more intense weather events due to global warming? More ice melt, more water, more storms? I wish we'd get some of the rain; we're in a drought, unusual for SE Michigan. Grass had turned pale and parched in early July; that doesn't usually happen until August. I'm replanning my garden to switch to xeriscaping. cajun and others in the South, I hope you can be as safe as is possible during these storms and flood events. |
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 12, 2016 9:39:17 GMT -8
Stay safe, cajun ! Aren't these more intense weather events due to global warming? More ice melt, more water, more storms? The ice melt I don't think has much to do with rain, but a warmer atmosphere has the ability to hold more water vapor than a cooler one. (Physics says so, Google "Clausius-Clapeyron Relation" for many technical references.) Warmer ocean surface temperatures feed that as well. And that's what's happening. The total number of rainy days around the world isn't directly increasing (it wouldn't inherently do that), but the amount of water being released in the "biggest storms" in fact, is. Which is why daily rainfall records are being broken more frequently than before.  Here's the journal article for that plot: " Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming", Lehmann, et al. (2015) To be clear: it's impossible to attribute a single storm (or even a season of storms) directly to a long-term trend. Variability is always there. Some years are just wetter than others. But overall observed "extreme" storm events are increasing in frequency, which is very consistent with a warmer (and generally wetter) atmosphere. That's a side-bar conversation from the current event, and I wasn't planning to turn the thread into a discussion about global forcing. More, I just hope cajun and others in the middle of this current storm stay safe. (Also a disclaimer: not my area of study. Just what I've seen in literature and presentations from those who know this stuff.) - Mike |
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reuben
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Post by reuben on Aug 12, 2016 9:58:27 GMT -8
Physics says so, Google "Clausius-Clapeyron Relation" for many technical references. And physics is not a lie! |
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