BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 12, 2016 10:39:27 GMT -8
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 12, 2016 11:50:50 GMT -8
Wow. Several spots just north of Baton Rouge approaching 20" of rain in 24 hours. One just hit that mark today.
As a result, river levels jumping more than 18 FEET in 24 hours, to new record highs.
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Post by autumnmist on Aug 12, 2016 12:07:22 GMT -8
BlueBear, do you have a ilnk for the graph? I assume the black curve represents the numbers of record-breaking events, but I haven't been able to determine what the bar graph portions represent and to integrate them with the curve. I did read the article you referenced; it's a good synopsis and helped explain the issue. There are a lot of links, I checked out some of them, but I couldn't find anything explaining what the bars and the blue sections represent. Are the bars representative of events, the negative ones deviations, and is the black curve a trend line, or something? Sorry, some of this is beyond me.
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 12, 2016 12:33:51 GMT -8
BlueBear, do you have a ilnk for the graph? I assume the black curve represents the numbers of record-breaking events, but I haven't been able to determine what the bar graph portions represent and to integrate them with the curve. I did read the article you referenced; it's a good synopsis and helped explain the issue. There are a lot of links, I checked out some of them, but I couldn't find anything explaining what the bars and the blue sections represent. Are the bars representative of events, the negative ones deviations, and is the black curve a trend line, or something? Sorry, some of this is beyond me. Sorry, I didn't explain that graph very well, and it is a bit complicated in the way they derived it. The bars are essentially the total % (not raw number, but percentage) deviation of "record-breaking" rain events that happen compared to a statistically "normal" year (averaged over the long term), year-by-year in a long time series. So +10% is 10% more record rainfall events that year than would be seen in a normal year, -10% is 10% fewer records than normal. In a stationary climate those values would wiggle above and below zero from one year to the next. The black is a trend-line through the bars. It comes from Figure 2 in the paper, which I just realized might be behind a paywall for most folks (the abstract and/or intro might be public, but the entire rest of the article might not be readable). I'm on a University network that has an institutional subscription to most major journals so I see them by default. Here is the complete Figure 2 directly from the Article. You'll notice the figure I pasted earlier is the "Global" trend for the entire year, seen in the upper-left panel here: The caption for the Figure (which is quite dense, typical of journal-speak) is here: The letters (NDJFM & MJJAS) are months, i.e. Nov-March and May-Sept. - Mike
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 12, 2016 14:40:50 GMT -8
Yikes. Another 12-20" predicted still to fall. Forecast from the ECMWF (short-term weather model) total rainfall values, from 12-noon Friday 12 Aug (today) through 12:00 Sun 14 August. Be careful, folks.
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 12, 2016 16:47:34 GMT -8
At 4 am, the flash flooding was supposed to end by 7 am. At 7 am, the flooding was supposed to end by 1 pm. Now it's supposed to end by Sunday, two days from now. I'm fine. I'm safe. I have not (yet) lost power. The water is draining well around me. I can get to and from my house, if necessary. Lots of folks are flooding. Some are being rescued by boat, at least one area has armored vehicles doing rescues for some reason. Tons of roads are closed. But some industrious locals are inspired by the Olympics. www.wwltv.com/mb/news/louisiana-man-finds-silver-lining-in-heavy-rain-flooding/296174807
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reuben
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Post by reuben on Aug 12, 2016 17:09:01 GMT -8
Stay safe, girl. Hope Mark and Pam, Steph, Dean, and all my other friends down there are OK. Looks like my friends near Lafayette won't have it as bad - so far...
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 12, 2016 17:58:51 GMT -8
Looks like my friends near Lafayette won't have it as bad - so far... Stacey in LFY is shuttling her dogs by kayak to high higher ground so they can potty. It's pretty bad that way, too.
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BigLoad
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Post by BigLoad on Aug 12, 2016 19:56:43 GMT -8
Wow! We had flash flooding yesterday, but nothing like that.
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reuben
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Post by reuben on Aug 13, 2016 1:22:18 GMT -8
Stacey in LFY is shuttling her dogs by kayak to high higher ground so they can potty. It's pretty bad that way, too. I don't know where she lives but I know people on Bayou Teche, closer to Breaux Bridge. And I'm guessing Lake Martin is over its banks. I've driven in the general Lafayette/Baton Rouge/New Iberia area during a heavy rain and the roads flood real quick. After this is all over some roads may be washed out, or at least need serious repair. Stay safe, girl.
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Post by johntpenca on Aug 13, 2016 14:48:18 GMT -8
How ya doing cajun?
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zeke
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Post by zeke on Aug 13, 2016 15:00:33 GMT -8
She was fine an hour ago. No water at her place, although Bateauxdriver has water in his home. he lives on the second floor, but the ground floor is finished, so it will need some work. Hope that is all that happens to our folks.
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Post by johntpenca on Aug 13, 2016 15:12:08 GMT -8
zeke-
Thanks for the update on cajun.
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zeke
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Post by zeke on Aug 13, 2016 16:26:52 GMT -8
She says her place is high and dry for now, and the rain let up enough for her to take the dog for a walk. Not nearly so bad. However, Mark (bateaux driver) and his family will have a big mess to clean up. For now, all of them are safe.
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 13, 2016 17:08:13 GMT -8
Thanks, y'all. I am fine here. I live just on the western bank of the Mississippi River, which isn't typically affected much by local rainfall. The smaller rivers in the area are all expected to crest at record levels, though.
The waters have come up far faster than ever before, and many are stranded. People who were able to escape their homes and neighborhoods are told to expect to sleep in their cars on the interstate (12) because it's flooded too badly for people to pass, and all the side roads are impassable. I have offered my house to anyone who needs it, but most can't get here due to flooded roads. Many of these roads have *never* flooded before. Roads are being washed out. Creeks that in my 44 years have never reached a bridge over them are well over the bridges.
All the schools in Livingston Parish, which was very hard hit, are closed indefinitely. Most of the rest of the area schools are closed at least Monday. Government office closed Friday, and I haven't yet about next week. The emergency offices in many parishes have taken on water, as has our Governor's mansion.
It's really unbelievable how quickly things have turned for the worse.
The good news is that people here are always willing to help. We have numerous volunteers out in boats rescuing people. People are opening their hearts and homes to friends and strangers alike.
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