zeke
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Post by zeke on Aug 17, 2016 10:33:37 GMT -8
That came across wrong, I think. Comics can make their living telling fans paying $$$ to sit in a nice theater, how they would fix things. Reality says, some people live above the flood plain of the highest recorded flood in a region, and still they suffered from catastrophic rains. Our known friends and acquaintances had homes that would've suffered little to no damage had this water level only reached that historic flood level. Mark's home would've still been 3 feet above water. Instead, he had a few inches get into his home, on the second level,and his storage area and garage at ground level was completely submerged. His water heater broke loose and he had no way to reach it to shut off the supply line.
Some people do tire of the repetitive nature of disaster. People move from Hurricane prone regions. They move from earthquake prone regions. People leave an area after it suffers a major wildfire. All of that still does not remove us from any feeling of needing to help others who choose to stay behind and make any place habitable again.
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gabby
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Post by gabby on Aug 17, 2016 10:50:20 GMT -8
Yeah, that comes across as completely wrong. It was mostly tongue-in-cheek - but I still think they should simply shut New Orleans down or move it somewhere else. It is, after all, below sea level.
My post was tongue-in-cheek, but it's going to become more and more of a serious problem. Miami and New York will become "threatened regions" in the future. What are we going to do? Stay there and build walls? Sounds crazy to me, but my bet is that that's exactly what we'll do.
ETA: I'm not, BTW, trying to make light of the problems many have in the floods - but this isn't a problem that is going to go away.
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 17, 2016 17:40:54 GMT -8
Thankfully New Orleans has not at all been affected by this water. Those that flooded are the places where people on the coast evacuate to during a flood. The area where I grew up has never in recorded history flooded. It is now one of the parishes declared as a disaster -- and trust me: there's nothing remotely like a swamp in that part of the world.
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 17, 2016 21:13:57 GMT -8
gabby, those that live in the swamps know well about floods. Their houses are built on stilts for a reason. Not all of S. Louisiana is swamp, and this was no ordinary flood, at all. Your post pretty much of reeks of self-righteous (and somewhat ignorant) sanctimony in the face of a disaster. cajun, you guys doing alright tonight? I hear BTR is expecting another several inches of rain.
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walkswithblackflies
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Post by walkswithblackflies on Aug 18, 2016 5:01:49 GMT -8
Reality says, some people live above the flood plain of the highest recorded flood in a region, and still they suffered from catastrophic rains Also, flood plain maps change. Our house was originally not in a flood plain. Then, during the closing, "the bank" found a new map showing it was. Something like 20,000 homes in the City of Syracuse were just added a couple years ago. And that creek has a flood control dam a few miles upstream.
And there's a significant portion of the local population that lives in floodplains. From the 1950s-1970s, it was the only place to build. All the other buildable land was occupied. Then beginning in the 1980s, farms that were out of the floodplain started closing, and new residential McMansion and commercial/industrial developments popped up. Which led to more impermeable surfaces, which led to greater runoff, which led to FEMA updating flood maps in the low-lying areas. Also, those living in the floodplains tend to be poor, and they don't have the means to just move and abandon their floodplain home. How many of you would be able to move and take $0 for your current home?
But what sticks in my craw is how those without flood insurance (in known floodplains) always get bailed out. A few years ago there was flooding on a nearby creek and a portion of a small city was affected. Turns out around 80% didn't have flood insurance. FEMA wouldn't bail them out directly, so they gave funds to NYS, who then offered to buy the flooded properties for the assessed value prior to the flood. It gives the message "Why waste money buying flood insurance when you'll be bailed out either way?"
I also think there should be a separation between river and coastal flood insurance. The holders of the former are getting fleeced by having to subsidize the higher costs associated with the latter.
Rant over. :D
ETA - Development in upstream wetlands compounds the issue.
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 18, 2016 6:45:50 GMT -8
BlueBear, we are fine at my house. Thanks for asking. My office hasn't been (officially) open since last Thursday at 5 pm. This gives me time to help wherever I can. But when you see everything people own dragged to the roads, too wet and damaged to ever be used again, when you smell the smell of "flood" - which is a combination of wet carpet, dead animals, backed up sewage - for miles and miles, when school systems are closed indefinitely because there are no schools left in an entire district, it's a bit overwhelming.
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 18, 2016 6:48:49 GMT -8
Walkswithblackflies -- thankfully they only redraw the flood maps ever so often. We had a lot of people move from non-flood areas to flood areas a few years ago, too. The insurance rates went from something reasonable to something like $10,000 per year on a $150,000 house.
Also we would love to have coastal flooding separated from river flooding!! Most people on the coast -- here at least -- have built houses to handles storm surges and the like.
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Post by autumnmist on Aug 18, 2016 7:53:44 GMT -8
Also, flood plain maps change. I learned something interesting a few years ago when there was a flood in portions of the city in which I live. I wasn't even aware it had occurred b/c only minor backup occurred in my basement, and that's not unusual b/c of the many trees invading sewer lines in this area. In fact the trees have done extensive damage over the years. However, as I drove N on my street the next few days, I saw entire berms stacked with furniture, boxes, and lots of other stuff. Later I heard a loud speaker and subsequently saw a Red Cross truck driving up and down the streets distributing cleanup supplies. As time went on, it was learned that apparently one of the pumping stations supposed to be maintained by Mich. Dept. of Transportation had been vandalized and apparently the pump wasn't working. This is when the blame game began. I contacted my insurance agent and asked about getting flood insurance, thinking that given the current administration in Michigan, this might happen again (at least we don't have the contaminated water problem that Flint has). She suggested waiting b/c as the issue played out, it might be that this area would be rezoned/reclassified as being in a flood plain, and then the cost and obligation issue for residents would change. I was surprised that what apparently was negligence could create a situation that could lead to reclassification and increased costs for residents. And this was an isolated incident. I've also learned that the city has been sued; haven't yet been able to get any information on that suit, especially the allegations against the city and its role, other than claiming that it was quick to address assistance for residents, which wasn't entirely the truth. Most people on the coast -- here at least -- have built houses to handles storm surges and the like. Weren't houses in some of the coastal areas built on "stilts" for years? I understand that in some areas on the Atlantic Coast houses are being built not only on piers, but there's a lot of open space inbetween those piers so that flood waters could wash straight through rather than backing up into basements. Flood danger has been planned more in terms of building safety and resistance, and the solutions are more "high tech" as the engineering and construction industry has adapted to compensate. How are you able to manage on a day-to-day basis? Are you getting food and water assistance from the NG? The videos and photos are horrific - so much devastation. It must be so depressing.
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Post by autumnmist on Aug 18, 2016 8:10:08 GMT -8
he bars are essentially the total % (not raw number, but percentage) deviation of "record-breaking" rain events that happen compared to a statistically "normal" year (averaged over the long term), year-by-year in a long time series. So +10% is 10% more record rainfall events that year than would be seen in a normal year, -10% is 10% fewer records than normal. In a stationary climate those values would wiggle above and below zero from one year to the next. The black is a trend-line through the bars. It comes from Figure 2 in the paper, which I just realized might be behind a paywall for most folks (the abstract and/or intro might be public, but the entire rest of the article might not be readable). I'm on a University network that has an institutional subscription to most major journals so I see them by default. Thanks so much for posting this additional material. It makes more sense now. And it is fascinating to see the trends, especially between different areas of the globe. This is something I'm going to spend some time on; it's a lot to absorb, not only scientifically but in terms of the ramifications for people. You are right that I couldn't access those graphs. I did see the notices of restricted access to certain portions of the site, which I've seen on a lot of scientific as well as medical sites. Understandable though. I really appreciate your taking the time to help provide additional explanations. (I need to decide whether to start building an ark!)
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walkswithblackflies
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Post by walkswithblackflies on Aug 18, 2016 9:15:04 GMT -8
Walkswithblackflies -- thankfully they only redraw the flood maps ever so often. We had a lot of people move from non-flood areas to flood areas a few years ago, too. The insurance rates went from something reasonable to something like $10,000 per year on a $150,000 house. Also we would love to have coastal flooding separated from river flooding!! Most people on the coast -- here at least -- have built houses to handles storm surges and the like. Crazy. With those rates, FEMA is saying those people are in 10-year flood zones. The rate for our 100-year floodplain home has doubled in the past 10 years. Every time a major coastal storm hits, the rates increase. I think the difference between river and coastal floods is the latter typically affects much more property at one time.
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walkswithblackflies
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Post by walkswithblackflies on Aug 18, 2016 9:18:13 GMT -8
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Post by hikingtiger on Aug 18, 2016 9:20:19 GMT -8
but I still think they should simply shut New Orleans down That thought went through my head during Katrina. However, it was pointed out to me the incredible value of the seaport there. That's something that can't just be closed down or moved.
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 18, 2016 10:05:42 GMT -8
Thanks so much for posting this additional material. It makes more sense now. And it is fascinating to see the trends, especially between different areas of the globe. This is something I'm going to spend some time on; it's a lot to absorb, not only scientifically but in terms of the ramifications for people. You are right that I couldn't access those graphs. I did see the notices of restricted access to certain portions of the site, which I've seen on a lot of scientific as well as medical sites. Understandable though. I really appreciate your taking the time to help provide additional explanations. (I need to decide whether to start building an ark!) The closed-access journal article is "understandable", but unfortunate. There is a big push to attempt to make all publicly-funded research available by mandate in publicly-accessible journals, which only makes sense to me (and a lot of folks). The NIH (Nat'l Institute of Health) already does this for medical studies they fund. The downside is that publishing costs go up, if journals can't make their money on subscriptions they have to make it on fees, but it's more than a fair trade-off IMO. It's BS that the public can't access the results of publicly-funded research because journal publishers keep it behind a paywall. FWIW, if you're interested in reading the whole article shoot me a PM. In the meantime, here's a news article recently published about this event and attribution studies, a high-level but pretty good overview. Might be worth a quick peek: phys.org/news/2016-08-louisiana-climate-effect.html- Mike
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BlueBear
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Post by BlueBear on Aug 18, 2016 10:35:49 GMT -8
The Flood Of 2016: Southeast Louisiana And The Consequences Of Real Community^ More important than the tributes to the communities of S. Louisiana (and the well-deserved shaming of the national media for being virtually silent while it was all happening) are the links at the bottom, for how to give to those who need it right now. There are many, many thousands of families who lost everything in this.
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cajun
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Post by cajun on Aug 18, 2016 10:37:51 GMT -8
"How are you able to manage on a day-to-day basis? Are you getting food and water assistance from the NG? The videos and photos are horrific - so much devastation. It must be so depressing."
It's definitely overwhelming. Supply trucks can get in now, so good and supplies are fine for me. I am spending my days helping others however I can since my office is still closed. If I sit home and watch too much tv, I will just cry. Driving through the neighborhoods is extremely difficult, both emotionally and logistically, but my part is easy compared to those ripping out walls and carpets and throwing their lives on the curb.
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