BigLoad
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Post by BigLoad on Aug 13, 2016 11:14:37 GMT -8
Regardless of what I may decide, I want to know the possibilities and likelihoods. I not only look at the forecast, but also the recent trends in the area, the long-term averages there for the dates in question, and the record extremes for those dates. How reliable are short-term and medium-term forecasts in the area at that time of year? That varies a lot by region and season.
I've bailed out or changed an itinerary due to predictions of a solid week of thunderstorms or more snow than I want to deal with. I've also continued despite unpleasant forecasts without regret, and been surprised by unpredicted storms of remarkable intensity and duration that would have prevented me from starting if I had known in advance. For example, I started a late November trip in AZ with a 30% chance of rain on the first day, and something like 15% chance on the remaining days, in a week that was historically cool and dry. Within a few hours, a three-day thunderstorm commenced, which started with two inches of rain, then continued with an inch of pea-sized hail and six inches of snow, all by mid-morning of the second day. I don't know how much more came after that, because Mrs. big_load preferred not to continue, and we went back out.
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RumiDude
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Post by RumiDude on Aug 13, 2016 12:43:25 GMT -8
Travis, you must not be able to read well. I have not mentioned your name in the above quote. I merely wrote: "I know of only one big windbag in Wyoming." HYOH and apply it to yourself if that is how you feel. Rumi Yeah, sure, Rumi. Wink, wink. And you just happened to address your epithet to the only guy from Wyoming in the thread? Alright, fine. Hey, do me a big favor, would you. If you have some inside information on exactly when the Yellowstone Supervolcano is going to blow, give me a head's up. I have a wild hunch that might constitute severe weather, and I wouldn't want to be caught dead in it. You know, with all the backpackers in Wyoming killed by hurricanes recently, who knows what could happen? Again, your reading skills are lacking. You asked about Wyoming hurricanes and I simply wrote: "I know of only one big windbag in Wyoming." You keep insisting on applying that to yourself so I can only assume you know yourself well enough to think that way. In this case I will assent to your self knowledge of the situation. As for the volcano thing, the only volcano prediction I am aware that might apply was that of Mt St Helens, which they were able to get a good enough warning to limit loss of life to three people, if I recall correctly. At least one of those three thought he could "mess" with momma nature. Turned out he was dead wrong. Rumi
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2016 13:04:25 GMT -8
I simply wrote: "I know of only one big windbag in Wyoming." Weather systems are not considered "wind bags." That term is commonly used as a derogatory reference to humans. You quoted me and addressed that statement to me. Absarokanaut is the only other regular member from Wyoming and he has not posted in this thread. Simple definition for "allusion" from Websters: a statement that refers to something without mentioning it directly. Gosh why would anyone even suspect Rumi might be employing allusion? How about if I said, "I know of only one stupid divinity graduate in the PNW. He hardly knows a thing about science, but he sure likes to take a moralistic tone towards those who do"?
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reuben
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Post by reuben on Aug 13, 2016 13:15:06 GMT -8
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RumiDude
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Post by RumiDude on Aug 13, 2016 13:27:56 GMT -8
Everyone enjoys a good train wreck. Rumi
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RumiDude
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Post by RumiDude on Aug 13, 2016 17:49:31 GMT -8
I simply wrote: "I know of only one big windbag in Wyoming." You quoted me and addressed that statement to me. For the record, You first engaged me in this bit of dialog by quoting me and then you wrote: "Let me know the next time you hear of a hurricane in Wyoming." I simply replied with: "I only know about one big windbag in Wyoming." Since then you have repeatedly ascribed that as referring to you. Is there something you are holding inside? Do you need to just get it out? Is it a guilt ridden conscience crying out for community forgiveness? It's OK to do that if you wish. Rumi This dialog needs a soundtrack.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2016 19:31:48 GMT -8
Let's go back to the heart of the issue — because it is important. The OP asked if we consult weather forecasts before hiking/backpacking. A side issue grew out of that regarding how we respond to the prospect of severe weather in the forecast.
Several posters have indicated that they have hiked in severe weather. I am among them. To summarize my approach, here are some relevant questions — with my response.
Will I cancel a hiking/backpacking trip if severe weather is included in the forecast as a possibility or a probability?
I may or may not. But in fact, I rarely do. However, I am willing to cancel if, in my own appraisal, conditions warrant canceling. Despite the fact that the prospect of severe weather is often in the forecasts for my area, in recent decades I have only canceled the hike for winter storms with the potential for closing roads.
Is the prospect of severe weather an automatic disqualifier for hiking?
No, it is not. If I choose to cancel a hike, it is never simply because the forecast includes the prospect of severe weather. I use my own judgment and base my decision on whether I believe I am equipped, experienced, and otherwise prepared to compensate for severe weather. So far, I have not come anywhere close to exceeding my ability to handle the circumstances of the severe weather that I've hiked in.
Am I or others who have also accepted the challenge of severe weather "messing with Mother Nature"?
We are interacting with nature. Whether someone else considers that interaction to be "messing" is mostly irrelevant. I have easily survived severe storms but never left a "mess" behind — other than the mess created by nature itself. And I have never regretted my decision to go.
Do I think it is okay to ignore severe weather forecasts?
I do not think it is "okay" for myself to ignore the forecast. I don't seek out forecasts for the purpose of ignoring them. It is for others to make their own decisions. I don't tell others what they "should" do. I take forecasts into consideration and make adjustments accordingly — if necessary. That includes circumstances in which the prospect of severe weather is included in the forecast. I can certainly think of some severe weather that would cause me to stay home. I can also think of some severe weather that would not.
Do I think it is foolish, reckless, or irresponsible for hikers to go ahead and do a trip even though there is a prospect of severe weather in the forecast?
No, not necessarily. Some of us are clearly able to handle the challenge. Some may not be. I can only decide for myself. It is for others to decide for themselves. It is not for me to impose my morals on others and it is not for them to attempt to impose their morals on me. It is a Hike-Your-Own-Hike decision.
Have I enjoyed the severe weather I was caught in while hiking?
I can think of several times when I did not enjoy it very much while it was happening. But, in every case, I have immensely enjoyed the memories. They are some of the best memories of life and woe be to anyone who would presume to deprive me of them.
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rebeccad
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Post by rebeccad on Aug 13, 2016 19:36:17 GMT -8
My personal belief is that forecasts beyond 72 hours are very unreliable. At that point, I look at seasonal averages. If I am planning on a trip to the UP in a week, and the forecast calls for rain, I won't worry about rain, at least until a few days before. The meteorologist to whom I'm married says that pretty much the max for meaningful forecasts is 5 days out. Of course, there are exceptions. It's pretty easy to predict the weather in places that don't have much change, so I have no trouble telling you it won't rain on you during your August visit to SF. Even if that's a year or two off. On the other hand, in New Zealand, where there is little to no upstream data, forecasts are accurate only for about 25 minutes out. As for "severe" or "dangerous" weather, a lot of that depends on level of preparation. A fall snow-storm that traps and possibly kills an ultra-light through-hiker would pose no problem to a Tigger heading out aware it's coming and prepare to cope. As small a thing as crappy, leaky rain gear can turn a steady day of rain from a bit of a drag into death by hypothermia. But there are also conditions where, while I'd hesitate to say no one should try to hike in them, I will go so far as to say are excessively unsafe for normal mortals. HYOH and all that, but sadly not every hiker knows his/her own limits, which is one reason we get sad S&R cases at times.
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tigger
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Post by tigger on Aug 15, 2016 10:03:54 GMT -8
On our last trip to the arctic - my first night on the ice, I slept in my bivy which I happened to have along. A few of the team raised their eyebrow at me and asked if I was sure I wanted to do so. I was more than excited to try it out and slept quite well, despite the cold, the wind, and the drifts. In much of those weeks on the ice, I spent experimenting with my sleeping setup. I had my +40 Golite, a 0 degree synthetic, and a 0 degree quilt. I also had a variety of closed cell foam (Z-Rest & Ridgerest), self-inflating, and even a Neo Air mattress. I spent many nights trying different combos to see how they worked in a variety of temps ranging from -40 to 20F. I did similar activities with my rain shell, fleece layers, down mid layers, both synthetic and down parkas and synthetic bibs. I even experimented with different snow walls and how they deflected the wind blown snow.
Knowing your equipment and exactly what it can do and not do is important. If it was a mystery to me in regards to my equipment being able to handle the environment, I would be extremely cautious about heading out on a hike or backpacking trip in bad weather. Thankfully, it is a hobby for me to try out everything and I have done so in a variety of extreme conditions. I am quite confident in my gear and carry enough backup (bivy, gps, compass, maps, extra layers, etc) to be able to make a mistake and not have to be punished by it.
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talus
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Post by talus on Aug 18, 2016 13:26:44 GMT -8
I get my forecasts from the National Weather Service-- www.weather.gov/You'll see a space in the upper left to enter location for which you want the forecast; once you have the map, you can drag the center around to get a more pin-pointed forecast. Do you find the highs and lows for mountain areas to be pretty accurate? The forecast for Darwin Bench is showing highs in the mid 60's and lows in the mid 40's. Does that sound right? Seems more moderate than I expected.
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rebeccad
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Post by rebeccad on Aug 18, 2016 14:55:48 GMT -8
Do you find the highs and lows for mountain areas to be pretty accurate? The forecast for Darwin Bench is showing highs in the mid 60's and lows in the mid 40's. Does that sound right? Seems more moderate than I expected. They were pretty accurate during our July trips to the Sierra--warmer than I believed possible, and that's pretty much how it played out. Yeah, in August I'd expect that altitude to get colder lows, unless there's some kind of ridge keeping warm air in place.
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RumiDude
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Post by RumiDude on Aug 18, 2016 15:44:57 GMT -8
Do you find the highs and lows for mountain areas to be pretty accurate? The forecast for Darwin Bench is showing highs in the mid 60's and lows in the mid 40's. Does that sound right? Seems more moderate than I expected. They were pretty accurate during our July trips to the Sierra--warmer than I believed possible, and that's pretty much how it played out. Yeah, in August I'd expect that altitude to get colder lows, unless there's some kind of ridge keeping warm air in place. Last year I found NOAA to be lacking in predicted temperature during my PCT section hike here in WA. The temps were well above what NOAA predicted. Check out this blog piece about US Weather Service. cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/us-numerical-weather-prediction-is.html?m=1Rumi
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BigLoad
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Post by BigLoad on Aug 18, 2016 19:10:20 GMT -8
Last year I found NOAA to be lacking in predicted temperature during my PCT section hike here in WA. The temps were well above what NOAA predicted. I don't mind temperatures above what I expected, although it could result in my carrying heavier clothes. Unexpectedly low is more problematic. A big dump of unexpected snow or enough rain to endanger stream crossings are also among my weather worries. Oddly, I've been duped both ways on the same day. A late November morning at some elevation in the Superstitions brought temps in the mid-teens instead of the thirties. I only had thin fleece gloves, so from rising until I was on the trail, it was a struggle to maintain feeling and function in my fingers. Four hours later and a thousand feet lower, I was sweating like a pig, so I ate lunch with my shirt off to let it dry in the sun. It was in the low 80s, far warmer than predicted.
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tarol
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Post by tarol on Aug 18, 2016 20:34:53 GMT -8
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seek
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Post by seek on Aug 19, 2016 6:38:51 GMT -8
I do, but in the higher summits of NH, the weather is so unpredictable something totally different can happen then what the weather says, so I go no matter what and turn around if conditions get too dicey.
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