BigLoad
Trail Wise!
Pancakes!
Posts: 12,929
|
Post by BigLoad on May 22, 2021 8:38:12 GMT -8
I saw in the SF Chron yesterday (I think it was yesterday...) that SF General has 0 COVID cases in their care right now. That's encouraging. Unfortunately, hospitalizations in NJ are still almost twice what they were in the lull between the spikes, with almost three times as many people on ventilators as during that period. That's why NJ has lagged in acting on the new CDC indoor mask guidance. Hospitalizations will be a key metric in determining whether it was safe to reopen as suddenly as we have.
|
|
|
Post by downriver on May 23, 2021 21:23:12 GMT -8
I got my second Moderna shot last week; it went well as I only experienced a sore arm.
DR
|
|
walkswithblackflies
Trail Wise!
Resident terrorist-supporting eco-freak bootlicker
Posts: 6,933
|
Post by walkswithblackflies on May 25, 2021 10:04:40 GMT -8
Less than 1%** of U.S. adults got Covid-19 after being fully vaccinated against the virus, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported today.
As of April 30, 10,262 patients tested positive for Covid-19 more than two weeks after getting their final vaccine dose. The CDC said 160 of those patients died. As of April 30, 101 million Americans were fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
The CDC report says while the vaccines are very effective at preventing Covid-19, a small percentage of fully-vaccinated people will get infected. These “breakthrough infections” are expected, especially before population immunity levels are high enough to decrease transmission, according to the report.
“The number of Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths that will be prevented among vaccinated persons will far exceed the number of vaccine breakthrough cases,” the report says.
Among the 10,262 breakthrough cases, 63% were female and the median age of patients was 58. The report shows 27% of the breakthrough infections were asymptomatic. The median age of patients who died after getting breakthrough infections was 82. www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2021/05/feds-say-less-than-1-of-fully-vaccinated-adults-get-covid-breakthrough-infections.html** Actually 0.01% (unless the 1% figure was calculated using other statistics, such as exposure risk, etc.). Conversely, the CDC acknowledges the number of breakthroughs is likely under-reported, since people with no or mild symptoms might not get tested. The more important / accurate figure is the deaths. Basically, you have a one-in-a-million chance of dying from COVID if you get the vaccine. Referenced CDC report here: www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm?s_cid=mm7021e3_w
|
|
jazzmom
Trail Wise!
a.k.a. TigerFan
Posts: 3,060
|
Post by jazzmom on May 26, 2021 3:36:34 GMT -8
Finally put my son on a flight to the Caribbean early this morning. Trip got delayed by a month because of his girlfriend's covid issues and, ultimately, he's going without her. Thank god for Delta's covid change policies... this is ticket number 3 or 4. Seems like he's spent the better part of the month submitting and resubmitting travel approvals from the US and British Virgin Islands, and a dozen covid tests to comply. He has two more tests to take before he's done.
And what a difference a month makes. Delta's no longer spacing passengers and apparently no longer really enforcing mask rules either. When I flew to Palm Springs last month, they were all over people who had their masks pulled down or not covering their noses but that seems to be over. He said the flight was full and the couple sitting next to him were chatting away with their masks pulled down. Oh well.
Good news is that the vaccines are working. My hospital friends say they're just not seeing serious/fatal covid cases in vaccinated people, at least not here where the predominant cases are the original and UK variants.
Here's a heads up though, for people who have had covid and need negative covid test results in order to travel/work. My son's girlfriend had covid more than a month ago and is still testing positive with non-self-administered PCR nasal swab tests. It's been super frustrating for her but she's been told that it's common for your body to "shed" the virus for a while even if she's no longer sick or contagious.
|
|
BigLoad
Trail Wise!
Pancakes!
Posts: 12,929
|
Post by BigLoad on May 26, 2021 6:59:38 GMT -8
My business unit has had three cases in the last two weeks among people who were fully vaccinated with either Pfizer or Moderna. Fortunately, they are all mild cases.
I don't think is statistically out of line, but I'm curious to see the distribution of breakthrough infections as a function of age. The overall rate may be in the single-digits (percent), but what is it for those over 60?
|
|
walkswithblackflies
Trail Wise!
Resident terrorist-supporting eco-freak bootlicker
Posts: 6,933
|
Post by walkswithblackflies on May 26, 2021 10:20:18 GMT -8
The overall rate may be in the single-digits (percent), but what is it for those over 60? From my post above: Among the 10,262 breakthrough cases, 63% were female and the median age of patients was 58.If we assume the majority of the "younger" cases are those from 18-58 (40 years), and the majority of the "older" cases are from 58-78 (20 years), then the rate for the older group is about twice as much.
|
|
echo
Trail Wise!
Posts: 3,332
|
Post by echo on May 26, 2021 11:15:54 GMT -8
One thing the social distancing and masking and hand washing did was seriously lower other infections. I hear Jimmy Kimmel say that the reopened to audiences, that had to have been vaccinated, but within 24 hours of the show, there were something like 40 people really sick with norovirus. As someone who has been in schools every year for 52 years, I’ve always had case after case of strep throat and coughs and colds. Until this year, when I had nothing like that at all.
|
|
BigLoad
Trail Wise!
Pancakes!
Posts: 12,929
|
Post by BigLoad on May 26, 2021 11:23:31 GMT -8
The overall rate may be in the single-digits (percent), but what is it for those over 60? From my post above: Among the 10,262 breakthrough cases, 63% were female and the median age of patients was 58.If we assume the majority of the "younger" cases are those from 18-58 (40 years), and the majority of the "older" cases are from 58-78 (20 years), then the rate for the older group is about twice as much. Roughly speaking that would make the under 58 breakthrough rate about 3/4 of a percent, and the over 58 rate about 1.5%, which is pretty encouraging.
Early on, there was a lot of discussion about the immune system weakens with age, so that older people would have to rely more heavily on others being vaccinated. This data suggests that such may not be the case. However, I cautiously note that all of these numbers exceed the claimed efficacy of the vaccines, so there might still be a piece missing in this puzzle.
|
|
|
Post by burntfoot on May 26, 2021 17:35:32 GMT -8
One thing the social distancing and masking and hand washing did was seriously lower other infections. I hear Jimmy Kimmel say that the reopened to audiences, that had to have been vaccinated, but within 24 hours of the show, there were something like 40 people really sick with norovirus. As someone who has been in schools every year for 52 years, I’ve always had case after case of strep throat and coughs and colds. Until this year, when I had nothing like that at all. Same here. I get the regular flu maybe once every 2 years. But, every year, I have stretches where I have the common cold, maybe laryngitis or a mild sore throat. This year, I've been the healthiest in many winters. Not so much as a sniffle. Next year, I plan to keep sanitizer in my room, the air filter running, and a mask on hand. If I start seeing students coughing or sneezing, I'm going to recommend they go home, then put on my mask while teaching.
|
|
walkswithblackflies
Trail Wise!
Resident terrorist-supporting eco-freak bootlicker
Posts: 6,933
|
Post by walkswithblackflies on May 27, 2021 5:15:18 GMT -8
However, I cautiously note that all of these numbers exceed the claimed efficacy of the vaccines, so there might still be a piece missing in this puzzle. I think the numbers are arrived at differently. For the manufacturer reporting, I believe they take people who are vaccinated and expose them to the virus. They then say breakthrough occurs in 5% of cases (for example). The numbers reported here are real-life. There are lots of people who have received a vaccine but have not subsequently been exposed to the virus... hence the numbers appear better. Both numbers are useful.
|
|
|
Post by hikingtiger on May 27, 2021 7:19:31 GMT -8
Here's a heads up though, for people who have had covid and need negative covid test results in order to travel/work. My son's girlfriend had covid more than a month ago and is still testing positive with non-self-administered PCR nasal swab tests. It's been super frustrating for her but she's been told that it's common for your body to "shed" the virus for a while even if she's no longer sick or contagious My wife had to get a negative test to get back to work. Per the doctor, the nasal swab quick-tests give positive results for much longer than the other tests.
|
|
BigLoad
Trail Wise!
Pancakes!
Posts: 12,929
|
Post by BigLoad on May 27, 2021 15:52:12 GMT -8
My wife had to get a negative test to get back to work. Per the doctor, the nasal swab quick-tests give positive results for much longer than the other tests. Our back-to-work rules are pretty complex because of that. If you had exposure to a documented case or traveled out of state, you have to have a negative nasal swab test administered after a minimum interval before coming back in. However, a minimum time after the last detectable symptoms (two weeks) is an acceptable substitute for a negative swab test for anyone who has been diagnosed with COVID because some people continue to test positive for as long as three months. Our policies have worked pretty well thus far. We have no documented cases of in-facility transmission, despite quite a few people getting infected at home or elsewhere in their private lives (although still much less than the population average).
|
|
|
Post by swmtnbackpacker on May 29, 2021 6:41:26 GMT -8
Reporting from the Southern California beaches, … seems that everything is reopening up with some local idiosyncrasies. In Carpentina (near SB) I could sit down at a coffee shop if I wanted to at 50%, while San Diego … coffee is takeout/outdoor only, but both seem to be letting regular restaurants and “bars” do their own thing - Los Angeles still enforcing indoor limits.
Think the state will lift its own remaining mandates by 15 June as everyone high risk who wants a vaccine should have got one by then… and the overall transmission rate is a fraction of 1%.
|
|
davesenesac
Trail Wise!
Our precious life is short within eternity, don't waste it!
Posts: 1,710
|
Post by davesenesac on May 30, 2021 12:01:40 GMT -8
New research study points to past exposure to some non-COVID coronavirus colds generates antibodies that may provide a level of protection from COVID. A year ago when the pandemic began and there were mysteries as to why some people were asymptomatic or had just light infections, and why some minorities and nations were hardly affected. I suggested on a few web boards it may in part be related to previous exposures to earlier coronaviruses colds however few took notice. Virologist on media strangely seemed to avoid addressing that facet probably for PC reasons.
California had large numbers of cases during the second surge however some ethnic minorities had infection rates several times Caucasians and Asians that in Northern California were always quite low. Consider the mystery of densely packed San Francisco that never had issues versus NYC or LA. A possible difference is most of the later went to schools here and likely decades ago caught those regional diseases while significant numbers of the later have been immigrants that were never exposed so or lived in regions those colds never took hold in. It may be a clue as to why in some states there were no differences in demographic rates. The common media PC narrative has been it is because those minorities are most often front line workers, often live densely, don't often have medical insurance, don't understand much medical science but that never made logical sense to this person, etc. www.jpost.com/health-science/study-identifies-antibody-from-common-cold-infection-that-reacts-to-covid-669579
A peer-reviewed study published in the academic journal Nature Communications investigated how the body’s immune system reacted to COVID-19 after it had already been exposed to other coronaviruses that are prevalent in the US and trigger the common cold. At least four such coronaviruses are known to exist in the US. The study found that the antibody in question reacts not only to SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, but also to SARS-CoV-1, which causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). This antibody is likely produced by a memory “b” cell that was previously exposed to the common cold, according to Raiees Andrabi, the study’s senior author and an investigator in the Scripps Research Institute’s Department of Immunology and Microbiology.
|
|
|
Post by swmtnbackpacker on Jun 11, 2021 10:05:07 GMT -8
Got my second Moderna shot the other day and only minimal side effects (sore arm, slight aches).
|
|