Post by speacock on Mar 24, 2017 12:02:13 GMT -8
Hiker1@TahoetoWhitney.com <hiker1@tahoetowhitney.com>
To @
Mar 22 at 9:02 PM
THIS YEAR
2017
March 22 BACKPACKER ALERT
Hey Hikers.
We face the Spring Thaw.
Below I discuss where we are and what I see as the most important factors controlling how Spring will play out into Summer. I link to key resources necessary to track these factors. I also request your observations.
The questions we address first are fording conditions and safety, then trails, specifically, "when will the trails open for PCT hikers and hikers geared and prepped for Summer travel?"
Those are the key questions facing PCT, JMT, and other hikers planning on or expecting to cross the Sierra early this season. But besides delaying early-season backpackers, this epic snowpack is going to change the character of the Sierra through this Summer for the rest of us.
At this point in time I expect moist conditions and skeeters to mutually support each other all Summer long.
Prospects
2017 has decisively broken the last six drought year's (excluding last year) increasingly earlier and earlier Spring Thaw and High Sierra trail opening dates.
The last few year's weather characterizations:
tahoetowhitney.org/content/fall-2011-backpacker-weather-trail-conditions-reports#14
This Year
Tracking Exceptional Weather
Steady flows of tropical rains from November through February deposited a record snow pack while overfilling and flooding many reservoirs, lakes, and rivers. Oroville Dam is not out of risk at the time of this writing in late March, in my opinion.
We've tracked the deluge here:
High Sierra News: Feb-March 2017
tahoetowhitney.org/content/backpacker-news-february-march-2017
High Sierra News: Dec 2016-Jan 2017
tahoetowhitney.org/content/backpacker-news-december-january-2016
DANGEROUS SPRING THAW
At this point in time we are looking at the potential for incredibly dangerous Spring Thaw conditions when the thaw begins in earnest. The main rivers and streams will not be crossable during this phase. This year's thaw may come all at once, or over a series of pulsing warming and heating events. However it comes, it will be powerful and potentially dangerous.
The current snowpack combined with the potential for warm rains or a heat wave bring the spectre of a catastrophic thaw and flooding conditions across California, and locally, in all the individual Sierra Watersheds.
Every place in California or Nevada that faces any historical threat of flooding is at risk today.
SNOW ON THE CREST
EXPECTATIONS
In the meantime, ski resorts along the Sierra Crest are planning on being open until July 4. This is indicative of how much snow ski resorts and experts believe could be on the Crest long past the point most PCT hikers are typically planning on, and going to be expecting clear trails across the Sierra.
Ski in July Article:
tahoetowhitney.org/content/backpacker-news-february-march-2017#33
These types of conditions can set up dangerous conflicts between hiker's expectations and reality on the ground. Everyone should warn PCT hikers that this year's seasonal conditions are very unfavorable for early runs through the Sierra.
REALITY
The trails through the high passes along the Sierra Crestline may not clear of snow until August, if at all. Dangerous fording conditions will begin to rise with the temps. When this begins and how it evolves depends on exactly how the weather and temps work out through Spring.
I've discussed the basic factors controlling our
Likely weather outcomes in this short essay of March 8,
tahoetowhitney.org/content/backpacker-news-february-march-2017#82
and in a brief...
March 18 Update
tahoetowhitney.org/content/backpacker-news-february-march-2017#cp
These short essays identify what I see as the key forces controlling our weather and link to the resources necessary to track them.
SEND ME YOUR OBSERVATIONS!
What are you seeing in your neck of the woods?
NEW EXPECTATIONS
PCT hiker expectations of an early start and an early passage through the Sierra should be moderated, if not dashed, right now. Unless you are very experienced traveling in very difficult Spring snow conditions. Those are not "speed-hiking" PCT conditions!
Current conditions should create expectations that the Sierra will not be passable for Summertime-geared hikers, and especially those deploying ultralight gear, until at least late-July or early August. Those dates reach earlier for those with snow travel skills and the proper snow gear.
Many PCT hikers typically bypass the Sierra during these types of years, catching a ride up around the Sierra, only to return when conditions become passable. This last happened in 2010.
PCT Mountain-Air year of 2010
tahoetowhitney.com/Yosemite/Yosemite-North/backpacking-jack-main-canyon-yosemite.html#7
Theater of All Possibilities
We are tracking weather and snow conditions closely on Tahoe to Whitney through the News and Calendar to determine exactly how this Spring works out and when access dates for various hikers open up. Again, let me know what you see and are doing.
We have recently experienced some of the best Wintertime backpacking conditions since the Winter of 2010-11. It looks like these fine Winter-Spring conditions will improve as gaps between storms increase this Spring, until the Spring Thaw begins to surge and undercut everything.
PCT Prognostication
Right now I would say that this upcoming hiking year is going to set records for the number of PCT hikers requiring rescue, and have a smaller number of hikers finish the PCT than typical. That's what happens during snow-shortened Summer seasons.
We are tracking status of, and changes in the snowpack here:
2017 Backpacker's Calendar
tahoetowhitney.com/2017-high-sierra--backpackers-calendar.html#3
NEW SITE FEATURES
On another tack, I've been bringing together various trail guide features.
I've built a Backpacking Star Chart.
tahoetowhitney.com/News_Science/backpacker-all-sky-constellation-star-chart.html
We've connected the Gear List to the Member's Favorites, and now linked all the member's favorites pages to each other. Thanks to all of you for filling out that obnoxious form! See, I had a goal for that info, to mutually inform.
The gear list offers a seasonal progression of gear suggestions and layering levels, while the Member's Favorites offer your favorite solutions for each piece of gear we use. You guys are great.
Improved Gear List
tahoetowhitney.com/Backpacking_Gear.html
Member's Favorites
tahoetowhitney.org/search/node/members%20favorites
All Right!
I hope everyone's well,
&
Happy Trails,
Alex
--
Alex Wierbinski
TahoetoWhitney.com: High Sierra Trail Guide
TahoetoWhitney.org: Backpacker’s Forum
TahoetoWhitney: YouTube Channel