|
|
Post by absarokanaut on Feb 27, 2016 11:53:31 GMT -8
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/I am thinking we will have another early hiking season this year. Here across the southern half of Greater Yellowstone we have been warm and a little wet, in February. Have gotten into the 30s F and even low 40s F a couple of days. Snow continues to pile up a little higher in elevation but if we've started a trend its gonna rain higher a lot earlier than "normal" too. Can't believe how much pavement I'm driving these days. Wet snow coming down right now though. DUMP! DUMP! DUMP! Not supposed to though. Things can change but I've found NOAA's maps quite accurate far more often than not. Marginally wet spring supposed to dry out to normal for the summer. It's coming up on ten years since my last big [for me] year of backpacking. It's dropped off steadily since then and the last few years have been almost all dayhiking. I am again telling myself I'm gonna reverse course if even just a little. I'm still gonna do the mostly dayhiking/truck camping that's become my most comfortable place but I want to repeat 2 if not 4 backpacks, none of which I've done in 4 years. I'm thinking of two nighter over the Crystal Creek Divide in southern Gros Ventre in mid-latest June, 5 nighter on Absaroka's Divide Crest in late June-mid July depending on snow and skeeters, mid July two nighter from Teton Canyon over Static Peak Divide to Whitegrass, and mid August to early September a two nighter relaxing on exquisitely exotic Boundary Creek. It took a few years but I've got steady work and a bit of flexibility to get out there. Lots of you out there have had extreme weather far sooner than "normal." Looks like the upper Midwest has an early spring coming too. Still supposed to be soggy on the Southeastern Seaboard. May not be everything you need but California you look a whole lot better than it was. How e doing out there folks?
|
|
|
|
Post by High Sierra Fan on Feb 27, 2016 13:23:59 GMT -8
I think you may be right. The strong El Niño had me thinking otherwise but the prevailing higher temperatures has me looking to an earlier Sierra season as well.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2016 13:48:10 GMT -8
I'm still dreaming of the winter we haven't had yet. Not much snow and getting dry. Our bigger snow storms generally happen closer to springtime or actually in the spring. But it would be nice to occasionally see the ground white. No such luck for many weeks.
It's looking like last winter. We've had another abnormally dry cold season. Then last year we got heavy rains all through springtime — allaying my fears of another drought. It's not predicted for this spring, but we'll see.
Part of the problem is that I haven't driven up to higher elevations where the snow is. But in past winters, I've been able to snowshoe practically out my backyard. Either the weather is goofed up or my memory or both. But when the thermometer reads over 60°F in late February, somethings does not seem right.
I'll take summer when it gets here, but I'd like to have winter to remember first.
|
|
|
|
Post by hikerjer on Feb 27, 2016 14:50:11 GMT -8
This will be the first time on record that we haven't had any snow in the valley during February. Same for below zero temps. We haven't gotten that cold here once this year. First time that's happened in my memory. Not good at all , IMO.
|
|
rebeccad
Trail Wise!
Writing like a maniac
Posts: 12,711 
|
Post by rebeccad on Feb 27, 2016 21:01:32 GMT -8
I think you may be right. The strong El Niño had me thinking otherwise but the prevailing higher temperatures has me looking to an earlier Sierra season as well. Yeah. El Niño seems to have fizzled a bit, and the really promising beginning to the winter has faded to the point that they are saying this isn't even going to dent the drought. Maybe it isn't a drought. Maybe this is the new normal. |
|
tigger
Trail Wise!
Posts: 2,547 
|
Post by tigger on Feb 27, 2016 21:57:55 GMT -8
We've had a good start to winter. I'm hoping we get another five feet of snowpack at least, but things have started to mellow out and I think that winter has given up the ghost. Seeing temps above freezing (both day and night) for nearly a week in February is just crazy. I remember it snowing on July 5th around here, but I don't think it's going to happen this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lonewolf on Feb 28, 2016 5:02:14 GMT -8
There hasn't really been a winter.
We only had one really decent snowstorm here and only barely dropped below 0F once.
It reached almost 60F yesterday, then dropped to the high 40's with a spit of rain.
|
|
swmtnbackpacker
Trail Wise!
Back but probably posting soon under my real name ... Rico Sauve
Posts: 4,886
|
Post by swmtnbackpacker on Feb 28, 2016 6:42:02 GMT -8
Planning the entire summer in the Sierras as some forests have already been lost to fire and won't grow back in my lifetime.
Just moved a scientific abstract into Nature Forum stating a multi-decade increase in fires. It does affect hiking plans plus those who fish, hunt, etc..
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 9:23:34 GMT -8
Just moved a scientific abstract into Nature Forum stating a multi-decade increase in fires. The federal government has a website for Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) with much of the same information as in the abstract you linked. At this address is a map and the graph below illustrating the increase in severity since 1984. Caption for the graph is directly below: |
|
Woodsie
Trail Wise!
Colorado
Posts: 272
|
Post by Woodsie on Feb 28, 2016 17:31:19 GMT -8
It's been a strange winter here, too. The mountains have decent snowpack, but down lower it has been spring-like. We've had a week or more of daytime highs in the 60's. Fire danger is high. Hopefully March will be wetter. So far this winter I have not used my snowshoes. The hikes I've done in the snow only required YakTrax. Snow was packed down. Here in Colorado Springs we've had a couple of little snows, then the BIG snow the first of February (12-24 inches). I'm not ready for winter to be over  |
|
tomas
Trail Wise!
Posts: 1,906
|
Post by tomas on Feb 28, 2016 17:54:22 GMT -8
We got walloped by one good storm that gave me a good chunk of the week off. Couple of coldish days, but nothing too exciting.
|
|
|
|
Post by swimswithtrout on Feb 28, 2016 19:16:41 GMT -8
It's been a strange winter here, too. The mountains have decent snowpack, but down lower it has been spring-like. We've had a week or more of daytime highs in the 60's. Fire danger is high. Hopefully March will be wetter. So far this winter I have not used my snowshoes. The hikes I've done in the snow only required YakTrax. Snow was packed down. Here in Colorado Springs we've had a couple of little snows, then the BIG snow the first of February (12-24 inches). I'm not ready for winter to be over And just a few miles away in N. Colorado, my yard has been locked in a glacial sheet of 6-18" + of snow and ice since December, until this past week. It's been too icy to even think of trying to carry out my big telescope and astrophoto gear. The first Crocus in my front bloomed today, the latest I've ever seen. I did have to take advantage of the 65F temps today and go out for a MTB ride on the lower trails that are finally clear of snow. |
|
|
|
Post by absarokanaut on Mar 13, 2016 12:16:02 GMT -8
I hiked/snowshoed to Upper Polecat Hots Springs yesterday. The thaw's been on, but we're getting more precip in the region now.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2016 13:15:52 GMT -8
About a week of wintertime left, and we "should" be getting our best snowstorms in the next month or two. We do have moisture forecast for mid-week, but it doesn't look very promising. As usual I continue to be vocal about my desire for a foot of snow — or two with inflation. To my surprise, someone around here actually agreed with me yesterday.
"Oh winter, wherefore hast thou been absent!?"
(Quote from Shakespeare's King Lear, er something like that.)
|
|
rebeccad
Trail Wise!
Writing like a maniac
Posts: 12,711
|
Post by rebeccad on Mar 13, 2016 13:57:12 GMT -8
We'll, we're getting rain now! I don't think it's stopped for more than a few hours in the last week. We're past 6" in that week, which isn't much some places, but is enough here to make me think I should probably go make sure the basement is dry...
|
|
